Earlier this month, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Foreign Ministers’ Retreat was held in Langkawi, Malaysia, marking the association’s first major meeting since the country took chairmanship. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim envisions a “second Renaissance” for ASEAN, aimed at advancing peace, justice and prosperity, particularly in light of the organisation’s disunity and growing irrelevance, especially concerning the issues surrounding Myanmar and the South China Sea (SCS), News.az reports citing foreign media.
The declining interest in ASEAN has reached a concerning level. Notably, the failure of President Donald Trump’s defence nominee, Pete Hegseth, to name a single ASEAN country during his confirmation hearings raises alarms. Additionally, the Indonesian scholarly community has expressed disappointment over Foreign Minister Sugiono’s inadequate references to ASEAN in his annual press statement on 10 January. The Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Indonesia, the country’s leading think tank, criticised Sugiono for seemingly deprioritising ASEAN.There are three reasons why Indonesia must reverse this trend and reclaim its leadership within ASEAN.
Firstly, Indonesia is the largest country in Southeast Asia in terms of population, economy and geography. Its population constitutes 41 per cent of all ASEAN countries combined, while its GDP accounts for nearly 40 per cent of the bloc’s total GDP. Although the chair of ASEAN rotates among its member states each year, Indonesia naturally assumes a leadership position within the organisation.
Secondly, Indonesia has established a legacy of leadership over the decades. It was one of the founding nations of ASEAN in 1967. Over the years, Indonesia has played a crucial role in mediating regional crises through ASEAN, including the Cambodia–Vietnam War in the 1980s, the Bangsamoro crisis in the southern Philippines in the 1990s, and the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia over Preah Vihear in 2011. This mediating approach, known as shuttle diplomacy, involves holding separate bilateral talks with opposing parties and then acting as a diplomatic bridge between them.
Additionally, Indonesia has been hosting and sponsoring the Workshop on Managing Potential Conflict in the South China Sea since 1990. The series of formal and informal talks among ASEAN countries and China led to the signing of the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, which contributed to the de-escalation of tensions in the area during the 2000s.
In April 2021, amid the Myanmar crisis, Indonesia took the initiative to host the ASEAN Special Leaders’ Meeting during Brunei’s chairmanship. Leaders from ASEAN member states, including General Min Aung Hlaing of Myanmar, attended the summit, which resulted in a five-point consensus that emphasised a commitment to cease violence and engage in constructive dialogue among the parties involved.
Thirdly, Indonesia’s strategic position makes its leadership in ASEAN more crucial than ever. Unlike the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei, Indonesia is not a South China Sea claimant. In the rivalry among major powers, Indonesia maintains its impartiality. Unlike the Philippines, Thailand and Singapore, Indonesia neither has a defence treaty with external countries nor hosts foreign military personnel on its soil. Additionally, unlike Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar, Indonesia does not rely heavily on a single major power as a foreign investor, which would compel it to support its patron’s regional agenda.
This unique position requires strong leadership from Indonesia within ASEAN. As the only strategically neutral member, Indonesia has the potential to engage with divergent parties and foster cohesiveness in the organisation. In addressing the issues in Myanmar and the South China Sea, Indonesia should revive “shuttle diplomacy”, which is key to achieving the aforementioned success. Regarding Myanmar, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore are critical of the junta, while Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam prefer a bilateral and more moderate approach to engagement.
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, a former military general, may resonate with the junta and share Indonesia’s best practices. Indonesia has a history of being governed by a military regime but has successfully transitioned to democracy without sidelining the military’s role. Prabowo could persuade the Myanmar junta to carry out the five-point consensus and gain support from Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam for this purpose. The president may also engage with Beijing, which holds considerable influence over Naypyidaw.
The same goes for the South China Sea issue; while progress in finalising a Code of Conduct (CoC) has been slow and challenging, Indonesia must not give up on the process. Fortunately, China and ASEAN have agreed on guidelines to expedite the CoC negotiations. During Indonesia’s chairmanship in 2023, ASEAN and China committed to concluding these negotiations within three years. Moving forward, Indonesia should ensure the effective implementation of the CoC by utilising shuttle diplomacy.
Indonesia’s leadership within ASEAN serves as a crucial diplomatic foundation. ASEAN, rather than organisations such as BRICS or the OECD, is the primary platform for implementing an independent and active foreign policy. Shuttle diplomacy is a key strategy for exercising regional leadership. As former Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa aptly stated, “Leadership in ASEAN is a process, not an event. It must be nurtured and, above all, earned.” Success within ASEAN will enhance Indonesia’s credentials in global diplomacy.
