The ambassadors of European Union member countries in Brussels reached an agreement yesterday to extend the mandate of the observer mission on the Armenian side of the Armenia-Azerbaijan border for another two years, until February 19, 2027. This decision is expected to be confirmed at the upcoming meeting of EU foreign ministers. As a result, the EU's observer mission in the region is being extended without the consent of official Baku or other regional countries.
It can be predicted that the EU's approval of this decision will have a negative impact on the Azerbaijan-Armenia normalization process and the overall security structure in the South Caucasus. Initially, in October 2022, the EU had actively mediated talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and at that time, an agreement was reached to temporarily deploy a 40-member EU mission to Armenia for two months as part of the Prague agreement. However, despite the mission completing its activities in December, in late January 2023, the EU decided to deploy an observer mission along the Armenia-Azerbaijan border without Azerbaijan's approval.
President Ilham Aliyev has repeatedly addressed this issue, highlighting the breach of initial agreements. In a recent interview, he mentioned: “...Without any notification or our consent, they not only extended this mission but also expanded it and even involved a country that is not a member of the European Union, further undermining trust. Then came those disgraceful displays with binoculars, where they donned semi-military gear and boots, parading around as if they were combatants.”
Let’s recall that the initial 40-member EU mission, which began its long-term operations on February 20, 2023, with a staff of 138, later increased its numbers to 209 by December 2023. Despite not being an EU member, Canada joined the observer mission.
By "disgraceful demonstrations with binoculars," the head of state is referring to the so-called civilian employees of the EU Monitoring Mission, which frequently patrols the border with Azerbaijan, ostentatiously observing Azerbaijani territories, our military positions, and residential areas with binoculars. A prominent example of this "binocular diplomacy" occurred when French Brigadier General William De Meyer from the French National Gendarmerie visited the Azerbaijan-Armenia conditional border on February 2, 2024, observing Azerbaijani territories with binoculars. This suggests France's use of the civilian mission for military and intelligence purposes.
While the EU has declared the mission's purpose is to observe the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, prepare reports, and contribute to efforts for resolving the conflict, in practice, the mission is being widely misused against Azerbaijan and it is highly probable that the mission is functioning as a network for espionage and intelligence gathering against Azerbaijan, neighboring Iran, and Russia. The inclusion of former military personnel and intelligence officers from NATO and other European countries in the mission strengthens this likelihood.
However, the extension of the mandate of the EU Monitoring Mission for another 2 years and the desire to continue patrols along the entire border, including the Nakhchivan direction, until the Azerbaijan-Armenia delimitation process, which could take years to complete, shows that the European Union intends to establish itself in the region and make its presence permanent.
Most importantly, if the European Union Monitoring Mission, an external force for the region, is approved at the level of foreign ministers to remain in the region until 2027, it will be a serious blow to the peace negotiation process.
Thus, on December 17, President Ilham Aliyev, in an interview with Dmitry Kiselev, Director General of the 'Rossiya Segodnya' International News Agency, and the author and host of the 'Vesti Nedeli' program on the 'Rossiya-1' television channel, said that 15 out of 17 articles of the peace treaty between Baku and Yerevan had been agreed upon. The head of state noted that one of the two articles that had not been agreed upon was related to the non-deployment of representatives of other countries on our border.
“The other article concerns the non-deployment of representatives of other countries on our border. Why is this important for us? Because, under the guise of so-called European observers, NATO infrastructure has been established on the Armenian side of the border. The issue of sending these observers was agreed upon with us in October 2022 during a quadrilateral meeting between Prime Minister Pashinyan, President of the European Council Charles Michel, the President of France, and myself. At that time, we had not yet excluded France from the normalization process. It was agreed that, for two months, a limited contingent of EU representatives would...
…Specifically, observers. Forty people were supposed to be deployed for two months. After that, this mission was extended without our consent, with the argument being: why should we agree to this with you if it’s a mission on the territory of Armenia? Our counterargument was: why did you agree with us in the first place? This is wrong. Subsequently, the number of observers was increased to over 200 people. Moreover, the mission seamlessly transformed into a NATO mission, as representatives from Canada also joined. So, this is the second article on which we must reach an agreement,” – the President said.
Thus, by extending the activities of the Monitoring Mission, the EU countries will have deliberately undermined the normalization process and proven that the main goal of their regional policy is not peace and stability, but destabilization and militarization. Both Armenia and Brussels know well that Azerbaijan has always held a principled position, has achieved the fulfillment of all its legitimate demands and conditions, and has not backed down. In this regard, the extension of mandate of the Monitoring Mission will be a blow to the signing of a peace treaty by the EU, which is completely excluded from the Azerbaijan-Armenia normalization process. But we must not forget that the consequences of this blow and diplomatic machinations will, first of all, have serious consequences for Armenia.
Armenia must finally understand that it needs peace more than anything else, accept Azerbaijan's conditions for a peace agreement, and oppose the extension of the mandate of the EU Monitoring Mission - in other words, the deployment of foreign military forces on the border with Azerbaijan. It is clear that the Monitoring Mission has become a tool in the West's hybrid war, has made no contribution to stability on the Azerbaijani-Armenian border, and is essentially incapable of meeting the challenges that any armed incident or crisis scenario would pose. Today, the main beneficiary of the calmness on the conditional border is Baku. In this situation, the only constructive step the European Union can take, to support the peace process would be suspending the mission and leave the region. The European Union still has a chance to contribute to peace and stability in the South Caucasus.
